Is the CSI Effect Altering Criminal Behavior

By: Don Penven

Based upon recent studies by Richard Overill of King’s College in London, it is quite possible that criminal behavior among certain individuals is being influenced by the “CSI Effect.”  We recognize the CSI Effect as being the increased expectation of the public at large and jurors sitting on criminal cases to view forensic evidence that becomes a part of a case to be “instantaneous” and “unequivocal” because of the dramatic manner in which TV programs and movies present it.

But the reality is that forensics, while precise in some aspects, is also susceptible to the vagaries we find in measurements and analyses as any other realm of science. Crime scene investigators often spend considerable time collecting and assessing evidence in order to present it as a series of probabilities, rather than definite fact.

Overill believes that the CSI Effect is really not as widespread as we might expect it to be, and it may be having a positive effect of reducing criminal behavior among some predisposed to commit crimes. He calls it the “Inverse CSI Effect” in a soon-to-be-published article in the International Journal of Electronic Security and Digital Forensics.

“This would be manifest” Overill says, “particularly among so-called cyber-criminals, fearing the instantaneous and definitive forensic evidence from the imagined cyber-sleuths.”

If Overill is right in his theory, this inverse CSI effect exists and one might imagine that a proportion of cyber-criminals would modify their behavior in one of three ways.

1. They might go straight by withdrawing from their nefarious activities altogether.
2. They might attempt to go "under the radar," restricting their crimes to ones with lower impact and less "profit" that would not necessarily warrant costly police resources for investigation.
3. They might expend large amounts of effort and/or money to obfuscate their modus operandi with multiple layers of concealment and stealth to make their crimes invisible to even the slyest cyber sleuth.

Overill says that he expects three trends might emerge if this inverse CSI effect appears in the realm of cybercrime.

1. First, we might see a reduction in the incidence (frequency) of economic cyber-crimes over time,
2. Second, there could be an increase in the impact (value) of economic cyber-crimes over time
3. Third, finally there will be a rise in the use of anti-forensic techniques by cyber-criminals over time.

Overill’s analysis of crime data stretching back over eleven years in the US suggests that these trends have been at play and that there is already evidence of an inverse CSI effect.

Most certainly there are some explanations for this phenomenon like improved awareness among the public of the security issues and of identity theft as well as more effective, protective software and security systems on typical targets of cybercrime including  email phishing attacks on bank accounts, for example. He also points out that cybercrime is much bigger "business" than it ever was and petty activity may well have been incorporated by much bigger crime organizations. Nevertheless, the inverse CSI effect stands out as a plausible explanation of changes in cybercrime activity over the last few years. In conclusion, Overill suggests that the TV and movie viewing habits of incarcerated criminals perhaps intent on self-education ought to be monitored closely with a view to understanding how behavior might be "adjusted" following their release.

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